Tuesday, December 5, 2023

2024 Rider Tiers # 1: Who Are the Best Grand Excursion Contenders Heading Into the New Season?


2024 Rider Tiers Section 1: Who’re the highest Grand Excursion contenders heading into the impending season? Spencer Martin breaks down the place each and every main Grand Excursion contender stands as we manner the 2024 season.

– This newsletter is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton e-newsletter. Enroll right here for complete get entry to. –

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Jumbo-Visma ‘most probably’ wont will all 3 GT’s

With the beginning of the 2024 skilled biking season briefly coming near (even supposing it isn’t transparent the place we will watch that season these days), I assumed it might be instructive (in addition to simply a laugh) to revisit who the game’s elite riders are at each and every main self-discipline (grand excursions, one-classics & level successful) heading into 2024 to provide us a clearer view of what to anticipate when those main occasions roll round.

To kick issues off, I’m keeping apart the highest grand excursion contenders into 5 tiers. To delineate them into tiers, I’m bearing in mind 1) their effects during the last 4 seasons, with effects generated lately given extra emphasis, 2) their age*, and, most significantly, 3) their probability to generate effects (wins) within the 2024 season.

*rider age is taken from the beginning of 2024 biking season

Why This Is Useful

One main good thing about this workout is the power to objectively minimize throughout the noise and spot who the most productive riders in each and every self-discipline are. That is particularly essential within the fashionable panorama since there may be an abnormal inversion the place the fewer a rider produces, the extra media protection they obtain. This inversion can create mismatched expectancies among fanatics, or even groups/riders themselves, previous to grand excursions when 1/4th of the sphere is being touted as possible winners and groups are devoting valuable sources to GC campaigns of riders without a actual probability of contending for podium spots.

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Who will likely be at the podium in Great (no Paris in 2024)

The Standards

Whilst there’s a just about unending array of rising grand excursion skills, like Cian Uijtdebroeks, who might cross directly to implausible careers as grand excursion winners, to qualify for the highest 4 tiers, a rider will have to have both received a grand excursion prior to now 4 seasons or landed within the peak 5 on the Excursion de France throughout the previous two years.

  • As a normal rule, those tiers are supposed to be purpose rankings that take a rider’s most up-to-date GC effects under consideration, however there are a couple of cases the place riders with skinny GC effects, like Remco Evenepoel, are increased and riders that might technically qualify for a tier, like Egan Bernal, are overlooked because of contemporary effects failing to turn the specified point to compete with the others.
  • Younger skills with a prime ceiling who might be capable to make a large step up from 2023 to 2024 however don’t have the consequences to land within the peak 4 will likely be relegated to the 5th tier.
    • Even supposing those riders rightfully create a large number of pleasure and get vital consideration, this theoretical upside isn’t accounted for in those tiers since most of the people massively overestimate how shut they’re to in truth changing their skill into a big grand excursion win.
      • In fact, there may be at all times a possibility one in all them replicates Remco Evenepoel’s 2022 season, the place he got here in with a historical past of sturdy however moderately scattered, big-race effects and received a one-day Monument, grand excursion and international highway race championship name, however, because of the unparalleled nature of the season, that is extremely not going.

Under, each and every rider is indexed of their BTP designated tier in conjunction with the age and workforce they are going to be racing at in 2024:

The Tiers

Tier 1

Reserved for riders who’ve confirmed a capability to win a grand excursion towards the game’s highest pageant lately and have the option to take action in 2024. That is clearly a shockingly choose and elite team.

lombardia 2023

Tadej Pogačar – (25) – UAE

  • 2023: second total@TDF
    • 7xTdF level podium (2xTdF level win)
  • 2022: second total@TdF
    • 5xTdF level podium (3xTdF level win)
  • 2021: 1st total@TdF
    • 3xTdF level podium (2xTdF level win)
  • 2020: 1st total@TdF
    • 4xTdF level podium (2xTdF level win)
      • GC Totals: 2xTdF total win, 2xTdF runner-up
      • Degree Totals: 9xGT general level wins, 19xGT general level podiums

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Jonas Vingegaard – (27) – Jumbo

  • 2023: 1st total@TdF, second total@Vuelta
    • 4xTdF level podium (1xTdF level wins)
  • 2022: 1st total@TdF
    • 4xTdF level podium (2xTdF level wins)
  • 2021: second total@TdF
  • 2020: N/A
    • N/A
      • GC Totals: 2xTdF total win, 1xTdF runner-up, 1xVuelta runner-up
      • Degree Totals: 3xGT general level wins, 10xGT general level podiums

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The highest two

Tier 2

Riders who will likely be thought to be severe possible winners of the Excursion de France in 2024 whilst additionally having an excellent probability to complete at the total podium. As well as, they are going to be thought to be favorites to win the remainder of the game’s grand excursions if they’re provide.

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Primož Roglič – (34) – Bora

  • 2023: 1st total@Giro, third total@Vuelta
    • 2xGiro level podium (1xGiro level win), 4xVuelta level podium (2xVuelta level win)
  • 2022: N/A
    • 2xVuelta level podium (1xVuelta level win), 1xTdF level podium
  • 2021: 1st total@Vuelta
    • 6xVuelta level podium (2xVuelta level win), 2xTdF level podium
  • 2020: second total@TdF, 1st total@Vuelta
    • 6xVuelta level podium (3xVuelta level win), 4xTdF level podium (1xTdF level win)
      • GC Totals: 2xVuelta total win, 1xGiro total win, 1xTdF runner-up, 1xVuelta podium
      • Degree Totals: 10xGT general level wins, 27xGT general level podiums

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Remco Evenepoel – (24) – QuickStep

  • 2023: N/A
    • 2xGiro level podium (2xGiro level wins), 6xVuelta level podium (3xVuelta level wins)
  • 2022: 1st total@Vuelta
    • 3xVuelta level podium (1xVuelta level win)
  • 2021: N/A
  • 2020: N/A
    • N/A
      • GC Totals: 1xVuelta total win
      • Degree Totals: 6xGT general level win, 11xGT general level podiums

The following two

Tier 3

Riders who’re ready to win, however now not be the outright favourite, on the recreation’s two lesser grand excursions (Giro & Vuelta), and also are legit contenders to compete for podium spots on the Excursion de France in 2024.

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Adam Yates

Adam Yates – (31) – UAE

  • 2023: third total@TdF
    • 1xTdF level podium (1xTdF level win)
  • 2022: ninth total@TdF
  • 2021: 4th total@Vuelta
  • 2020: ninth total@TdF
    • 1xTdF level podium
      • GC Totals: 1xTdF total podium
      • Degree Totals: 1xTdF level win, 3xGT general level podiums

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Geraint Thomas – (38) – Ineos

  • 2023: second total@Giro
  • 2022: third total@TdF
  • 2021: N/A
  • 2020: N/A
    • N/A
      • GC Totals: 2xTdF podium, 1xGiro podium
      • Degree Totals: 4xGT general level podium

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Sepp Kuss – (29) – Jumbo

  • 2023: 1st total@Vuelta
    • 3xVuelta level podium (1xVuelta level win)
  • 2022: N/A
  • 2021: N/A
    • 1xTdF level win, 1xVuelta level podium
  • 2020: N/A
    • N/A
      • GC Totals: 1xVuelta total win
      • Degree Totals: 1xTdF level win, 1xVuelta level win, 5xGT general level podiums

Kuss, Yates and Thomas – Tier 3

Tier 4

Those riders have an outdoor probability of successful and a greater probability at podium finishes on the Giro and Vuelta in 2024. And if a couple of issues destroy their method, they have got an outdoor shot of completing at the podium on the Excursion de France.

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Geoghegan Hart

Tao Geoghegan Hart – (28) – Lidl-Trek

  • 2023: N/A
  • 2022: N/A
  • 2021: N/A
  • 2020: 1st total@Giro
    • 3xGiro level podiums (2xGiro level wins)
      • GC Totals: 1xGiro total win
      • Degree Totals: 2xGiro level wins, 4xGT general level podiums

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Jai Hindley – (27) – Bora

  • 2023: seventh total@TdF
    • 1xTdF level podium (1xTdF level win)
  • 2022: 1st total@Giro
    • 3xGiro level podiums (1xGiro level win)
  • 2021: N/A
  • 2020: second total@Giro
    • 3xGiro level podiums (1xGiro level win)
      • GC Totals: 1xGiro total win, 1xGiro runner-up
      • Degree Totals: 3xGT general level wins, 7xGT general level podiums

Simon Yates

Simon Yates (31) – Jayco

  • 2023: 4th total@TdF
  • 2022: N/A
    • 2xGiro level podiums (2xGiro level win)
  • 2021: third total@Giro
    • 2xGiro level podiums (1xGiro level win)
  • 2020: N/A
    • N/A
      • GC Totals: 1xTdF total peak 5, 1xGiro podium
      • Degree Totals: 3xGiro level wins, 4xGT general level podiums

Is it time for the younger guys?

Tier 5:

The game’s elite younger(ish) grand excursion GC skill. Totally unproven as winners, however all have an excellent number of peak tens and podiums up to now and could have nice possibilities to complete at the podium, and even perhaps win, the 2024 Giro and/or Vuelta.

João Almeida – UAE- (25) – 4th@Giro 2020, sixth@Giro 2021, fifth@Vuelta 2022, third@Giro 2023
Juan Ayuso – UAE- (21) – third@Vuelta 2022, 4th@Vuelta 2023
Carlos Rodriguez – Ineos (23) – seventh@Vuelta 2022, fifth@TdF 2023
Thymen Arensman – Ineos (23) – sixth@Vuelta 2022, sixth@Giro 2023
Cian Uijtdebroeks – Bora – (21) – eighth@Vuelta 2023

Cian Uijtdebroeks

Best Riders Who Neglected Out

Illustrating simply how tough it’s to stick within the peak tiers of grand excursion GC competition, underneath are 3 extraordinarily high quality riders whose contemporary Palmeres didn’t let them qualify for the tiers above, plus Egan Bernal, who, in spite of technically qualifying because of his 2021 Giro d’Italia victory, simply merely hasn’t proven the considered necessary talent to compete with the brand new team of GC stars after his low season crash between the 2021 and the 2022 seasons.

  • Specifically, Bernal’s struggles to stick with the lead breakaway team on moderately delicate climbs on Degree 18 of the 2023 Vuelta had been a hallmark that he may just most probably combat to get again to his former mountain climbing point.


Enric Mas – (28) – Movistar

  • 2023: sixth@Vuelta
  • 2022: second@Vuelta
  • 2021: second@Vuelta
  • 2020: fifth@Vuelta
    • Podium Totals: 2xVuelta podium


Richard Carapaz – (30) – EF

  • 2023: N/A
  • 2022: second@Giro
  • 2021: third@TdF
  • 2020: second@Vuelta
    • Podium Totals: 1xGiro runner-up, 1xVuelta runner-up, 1xTdF podium


Mikel Landa – (34) – QuickStep

  • 2023: fifth@Vuelta
  • 2022: third@Giro
  • 2021: N/A
  • 2020: 4th@TdF
    • Podium Totals: 1xGiro total podium


Egan Bernal – (27) – Ineos

  • 2023: N/A
  • 2022: N/A
  • 2021: 1st total@Giro
  • 2020: N/A

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UAE peak workforce

Key Takeaways:

1) The highest Grand Excursion GC skill is focused inside of a couple of peak groups

  • Tier breakdown by way of workforce:
    UAE: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 3, 2xTier 5
    Jumbo-Visma: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 3
    Bora: 1xTier 2, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
    Ineos: 1xTier 3, 2xTier 5
    Soudal-QuickStep: 1xTier 2
    Lidl-Trek: 1xTier 4
    Jayco-Alula: 1xTier 4
  • The main takeaway from this checklist is simply how concentrated grand excursion good fortune is inside of a couple of groups or even only a handful of riders inside of the ones choose groups.
    • In reality, in spite of there being 22 groups that persistently compete within the top-level races (18 WorldTour groups plus 4 second-division groups), best seven have grand excursion GC contenders that even qualify for the highest 5 tiers of this workout.
      • Additional underlining this inequality, no workforce has a rider within the up-and-coming fifth tier that doesn’t actually have a rider within the 4 tiers above.
    • 3 riders, Vingegaard, Pogačar, and Roglič, have received seven out of the twelve grand excursions (58%) because the get started of the 2020 season, which displays simply how robust the delineation is between the highest tier and the remainder of the sphere.

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Subsequent up Jumbo-Visma

2) Jumbo has taken a step again, whilst Bora is on the upward push heading into the 2024 season

  • Jumbo and UAE are nonetheless the one two groups with Tier 1 riders, however their benefit over the remainder of the sphere has considerably diminished since final 12 months because of Bora taking a large step up by way of obtaining Primož Roglič’s contract from Jumbo, and in truth having extra tiered riders than Jumbo (3 vs 2).
    • Apparently, UAE has additionally overtaken Jumbo each with regards to doubling the volume of general tiered riders (4 vs 2) whilst additionally matching their collection of Tier 1 riders.
    • Under the highest two, Ineos has 3 drained riders, however they lack a unmarried celebrity able to getting into a grand excursion as an outright favourite in 2024.
      • Apparently, the veteran Geraint Thomas has in truth larger his tier from final 12 months by way of going from 4 to three, however the lack of Tao Geoghegan Hart, who seemed improbable sooner than crashing out of the 2023 Giro, has been a large loss for Ineos.

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Thomas nonetheless has it

3) Those tiers additionally talk to the trouble of now not best successful a grand excursion, however maintaining that good fortune.

  • Whilst riders like Jai Hindley and Remco Evenepoel have received grand excursions lately, neither have, no less than up to now, been ready to duplicate that good fortune.
    • Additionally, somewhat contemporary grand excursion winners like Richard Carapaz and Egan Bernal have fallen out of the tiers totally, one thru now not having the hot palmers to qualify and the opposite because of failing to turn the standard essential to problem for grand excursion victories towards fashionable skills.

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Bernal: Excursion winner to domestique?

4) Constant rider enlargement and growth is underrated.

  • Younger riders like Juan Ayuso, Carlos Rodriguez, and Cian Uijtdebroeks are extraordinarily extremely touted these days, however it is very important indicate that Enric Mas is generating just about the similar effects however with out the fanfare and pleasure because of being only some years older.
    • It would sound absurd making an allowance for those riders’ younger ages, however, once a rider begins generating GC effects, it will be significant for them to repeatedly enhance to turn out to be a peak famous person and steer clear of falling into the Mas/Landa zone of having the ability to end within the peak 5 persistently, however fail to significantly problem for total victory.

Landa and Mas – A GT win too a ways

5) The highest GC contenders who additionally dominate the level podium totals will likely be extremely tough to overcome

  • The lopsided level podium totals and, consequently, the huge time bonus benefit that includes it, display us that, no less than within the close to long term, the established superstars magnificence will likely be extraordinarily tough to unseat in the event that they take the starting point are compatible and wholesome since riders like Thomas and Hindley should be a degree above, both in poaching time thru savvy ways throughout transition phases or within the time trials, in the event that they need to beat the extra well-rounded riders within the peak tier.
    • Vingegaard’s being head-and-shoulders above the remainder on lengthy climbs and time trials have rendered it a moot level up to now, however his level win/podium totals lagging in the back of Pogačar and Roglič alerts a possible weak spot which may be exploited on the 2024 Excursion.
    • The one GC contender that looks able to difficult Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Roglič for level podiums and time bonuses is Evenepoel, who has briefly advanced a capability to dash and contest rapid uphill finishes.

Can somebody beat the highest two?

– This newsletter is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton e-newsletter. Enroll right here for complete get entry to. –

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