Sunday, September 24, 2023

VUELTA’23 Leisure Day Wrap #1: So A long way & How Issues May just Play Out From Right here?


Vuelta’23 Leisure Day Spherical Up: Spencer Martin provides us his first leisure day reflections, breaking down the place the GC contenders have gained/misplaced time up to now all over a wild Vuelta a España, and what it way for the rest of the race. Breaking down what we’ve realized concerning the 2023 Vuelta a España GC contest up to now and the way issues may just play out from right here.

– This newsletter is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton e-newsletter. Enroll right here for complete get admission to. –

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Crashes and rain within the first Vuelta week

After an eventful opening 9 days of racing, it’s transparent that the 2023 Los angeles Vuelta a España, a minimum of at this level, is a long way from the two-rider duel that has grow to be de rigueur in fashionable grand excursion racing, and, as a substitute, is a wide-open seven-way struggle for the total win. Jumbo-Visma’s Sepp Kuss, an American who’s most probably the finest natural climber on the earth, holds a considerable 2’22 lead over protecting champion Remco Evenepoel, with 5 different primary pre-race favorites (Primož Roglič, Jonas Vingegaard, Enric Mas, Juan Ayuso, and João Almeida) all filled inside of a 33-second window at the back of.

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The highest guys are on the entrance

Taking into account time gaps were created between key GC riders on seven out of the outlet 9 phases, those slender gaps spotlight simply how aggressive the racing has been and the way shut the bodily degree is between the highest GC contenders.

Present GC Most sensible Ten:
1) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +0
2) Marc Soler (UAE) +43
3) Lenny Martinez (FDJ) +1’02
4) Remco Evenepoel (QuickStep) +2’22
5) Mikel Landa (Bahrain) +2’29
6) Primož Roglič +2’29
7) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +2’33
8) Enric Mas (Movistar) +2’33
9) Juan Ayuso +2’43
10) João Almeida +2’55

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Sepp Kuss in crimson

The place Time Has Been Received/Misplaced So A long way

To discern how the GC race will play out within the coming weeks, let’s have a look at the place every of The Giant Six took or misplaced time up to now. I’ve remoted each and every level the place the highest 3 have gained/misplaced time relative to one another up to now and what kind of time they gained(+) or misplaced(-).

Degree 1 Workforce Time Trial
Mas +0
Evenepoel -6
Roglič -32
Vingegaard -32
Ayuso -37
Almeida -37

Degree 3 Summit End
Evenepoel +0
Vingegaard -5
Ayuso -7
Roglič -11
Mas -11
Almeida -11

Degree 5 Dash End
Evenepoel +0
Vingegaard -6
Ayuso -6
Roglič -6
Mas -6
Almeida -6

Degree 6 Summit End
Roglič +0
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -7
Almeida -14
Mas -24
Evenepoel -32

Degree 7 Dash End
Vingegaard +0
Evenepoel -2
Roglič -2
Ayuso -2
Mas -2
Almeida -2

Degree 8 Mountain Degree (Downhill End)
Roglič +0
Evenepoel -4
Ayuso -6
Vingegaard -12
Mas -12
Almeida -12

Degree 9 Summit End
Almeida +0
Roglič -5
Evenepoel -5
Ayuso -5
Vingegaard -5
Mas -5

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Roglič in search of seconds

Route Sort The place Time Was once Received/Misplaced Relative to Evenepoel

When taking a look on the path varieties the place the opposite primary GC riders (riders prime up within the GC who didn’t take time by means of the level 6 breakaway) have gained/misplaced time relative to Remco Evenepoel, we will be able to see that in spite of successful the outlet summit end on level 3, Evenepoel’s lead has been virtually solely constructed within the opening staff time trial and time bonuses, whilst he has given up vital time during the early mountain phases on each and every different primary contender (now not normally a just right signal). Despite the fact that those losses had been principally remoted to a unmarried level (Degree 6), the lengthy ultimate climb on that day preferrred represented what he’ll face via the remainder of the Vuelta mountain phases.

Workforce Time Trials
Mas +6 (received)
Roglič -26 (misplaced)
Vingegaard -26 (misplaced)
Ayuso -31 (misplaced)
Almeida -31 (misplaced)

Mountain Phases
Roglič +31 (received)
Vingegaard +29 (received)
Ayuso +24 (received)
Almeida +20 (received)
Mas +5 (received)

  • Summit Finishes
    Roglič +31 (received)
    Vingegaard +31 (received)
    Ayuso +24 (received)
    Almeida +22 (received)
    Mas +7 (received)

Time Bonuses
Roglič -12 (misplaced)
Vingegaard -14 (misplaced)
Ayuso -14 (misplaced)
Mas -22 (misplaced)
Almeida -22 (misplaced)

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Can Evenepoel recapture the crimson jersey

Key Takeaways

1) Sepp Kuss main the race highlights a significant factor for, and a significant weak spot with, Remco Evenepoel’s Soudal-QuickStep staff

  • Whilst he wasn’t integrated within the calculations above because of taking the vast majority of his time on a unmarried level (level 6), however Jumbo-Visma’s Sepp Kuss sitting 2’22 in entrance of Remco Evenepoel is for sure a thorn within the aspect of the QuickStep, Movistar, and UAE groups.
    • The time deficit between Kuss and the opposite contenders is for sure critical, and Kuss will most probably stay within the race lead after the next day to come’s time trial, however I feel Evenepoel, Ayuso, Roglič, and Vingegaard will make up sufficient time to sooner or later overtake him (they might realistically nail again 1’40-2’00 over the 26-kilometer path), the truth that he, and Marc Soler, had been allowed within the breakaway within the first position highlights the weak spot of the QuickStep staff and foreshadows problems Evenepoel may have when the race is going into the prime Pyrenees on phases 13 and 14.
      • For instance, what occurs if Kuss, and even Vingegaard, is going transparent at the HC climbs early on both of the ones phases? QuickStep has already signaled they don’t have the power or want to chase the ones strikes down.
      • And even supposing they may be able to stay Kuss and Vingegaard out of the breakaway, what occurs when Evenepoel is remoted within the valley main into the general climb on level 14, and Jumbo begins sending Roglič, Vingegaard, and Kuss up the street, as they did on level 11 of the 2022 Excursion de France?

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Evenepoel does appear calmer after his issues within the first days

2) In contrast to final yr, when Remco Evenepoel constructed up a big early lead, the time gaps up to now between the primary GC contenders are shockingly slender

  • Whilst he’ll most probably take time again within the level 10 time trial, Evenepoel’s present seven-second hole over Roglič pales compared to the space of one’53 he held over Roglič heading into the primary leisure day finally yr’s Vuelta (which ballooned to two’41 after level 10).
    • Taking into account this 2’41 hole was once shrinking all of a sudden within the 3rd week ahead of Roglič crashed out of the race, and that he has misplaced 19 seconds to Roglič within the for my part contested phases at this Vuelta (each and every level because the level 1 TTT), and Evenepoel’s place within the GC begins to seem not up to supreme.
  • In stark distinction to final yr, if we clear out the riders who took time at the Degree 6 breakaway, we will be able to see those six pre-race favorites are all inside of simply 33 seconds of each other.
    • Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) +0
      Primož Roglič +7
      Jonas Vingegaard +11
      Enric Mas +11
      Juan Ayuso +21
      João Almeida +33
  • And, if we clear out the outlet staff time trial (the place Jumbo was once not on time by means of a flat tire) so that you could get a really feel for the way riders are evaluating in head-to-head pageant, Roglič has been the most powerful, whilst Juan Ayuso has been moment, Vingegaard 3rd and Evenepoel is 19-seconds down.
    • Primož Roglič +0
      Juan Ayuso +9
      Jonas Vingegaard +11
      Remco Evenepoel +19
      João Almeida +21
      Enric Mas +36
      • In my thoughts, those standings are the finest pass judgement on of uncooked power up to now at this Vuelta.

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Roglič nonetheless the highest favourite?

3) Primož Roglič must lately be regarded as the favourite to win this race

  • Taking into account Roglič has been in a position to open gaps at the others in spite of the somewhat muted racing summit finishes whilst additionally fighting Evenepoel from opening his patented early time buffer signifies that the three-time champion is in an especially robust place, particularly since he has been the most powerful climber at this race and there are two large mountain phases (13 & 14) arising on the finish of the week.
    • Whilst many audience and pundits would level to Vingegaard and Evenepoel as Roglič’s primary challengers, the reality that they have got struggled to stay tempo with Roglič on the kind of lengthy, sustained climbs that may begin to seem at a better period later on this race, makes me skeptical that they’re going to be his largest competitors by means of the top of the race.
      • As a substitute, I’d level to 20-year-old Juan Ayuso, who has ridden a surprisingly sensible, and low-key, race and has come the nearest to matching Roglič up till this level. Along with being one of the crucial most powerful climbers at this race, he’s a world-class time trialist who will most probably take time on Roglič on Degree 10.

Will Evenepoel be in crimson after the TT on Monday?

Degree 10 Preview

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Degree 10 map and profile

The following day’s 26-kilometer path time trial could be somewhat quick, however it’s going to play a hugely essential function within the ultimate total standings.

  • For instance, within the 30-kilometer-long Degree 10 time trial within the 2022 Vuelta, the nearest rider to Evenepoel was once Roglič, who completed 48 seconds again (a 1.55 seconds in step with kilometer loss), with the following GC contender being Miguel Ángel López (a just right proxy for Kuss) at 1’47 again (3.45 moment in step with km loss).
    • Whilst it is a other yr and a unique race, don’t be shocked to look strangely huge time gaps between the Giant Six favorites (Evenepoel, Roglic, Vingegaard, Mas, Ayuso, Almeida).
  • The 2 largest issues to look at will likely be how Kuss manages his losses and what kind of time Evenepoel can take at the Jumbo-Visma trio.
    • If Evenepoel desires to win his second-consecutive Vuelta, he’ll want to unharness a trip as in a similar way dominant as his efficiency in final yr’s Vuelta TT.
      • Evenepoel must glance to take 30-45 seconds on each Roglič and Vingegaard if he desires to carry them off within the second-week mountain phases.
    • If Kuss can prohibit his losses to underneath 90 seconds to the best-placed non-Jumbo member of The Giant Six, it enormously adjustments the calculus for the rest of the race and can pressure Ayuso, Almeida, Evenepoel, and Mas to move at the offensive, even supposing that taste of racing probably units up Roglič and Vingegaard assaults past due on laborious mountain phases.

# Stick with PEZ for the entire Vuelta information. #

# Spencer Martin is the writer of the cycling-analysis e-newsletter Past the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of every race and solutions large image questions surrounding staff and rider efficiency. Enroll now to get complete get admission to to the entire to be had content material and race breakdowns. #

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